By Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office
Key Points:
-Here we go again, another winter storm appears likely in South Carolina this weekend.
-Uncertainty keeps us from pinning down many specifics at this point. However, it’s looking increasingly likely that much of South Carolina will see snow starting as early as late Friday and potentially lasting into Saturday night. It’s too early to predict amounts or where the heaviest snow may fall.
-The potential exists for slippery travel starting Friday evening. It may last for a few days because it will remain cold behind the storm. The extent and duration of potential travel problems are uncertain.
-The risk for power outages will be low because the storm is likely to bring snow rather than ice buildup.
-It’s time to turn our attention to the next significant storm to affect us this weekend. We have good computer model agreement that another winter storm will affect much of South Carolina Friday night through Saturday night.
In the meantime:
We remain tranquil but cold through Wednesday; Wednesday won’t be as cold as today, with highs in the mid-40s to low 50s north to south.
A cold front will move through Wednesday night into Thursday, but it will lack moisture and produce no rain, ice or snow. Highs on Thursday will range from the low 40s north to near 50 south.
Colder air moves in on Friday into Friday night as the next storm approaches. Highs on Friday will range from near 40 north to the upper 50s in the far south.
The setup this time looks different from last weekend’s event. We’ll have more cold air available, and the storm track will follow the classic Gulf Coast-to-East Coast route, favoring snow over ice.
However, there are uncertainties because the weather pattern over North America and the Pacific Ocean is complex, with many players on the field. The more features you have to track, the harder it is to predict where they will be in four to five days.
The primary feature for this weekend’s storm is currently swirling over Hudson Bay. It will drop southward in the coming days, crossing the Great Lakes on Friday and reaching the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. It will then move through the Carolinas and depart to the northeast on Saturday night into Sunday. It could join forces with a disturbance now over the Pacific near the Aleutians and with a third disturbance west of Baja California. However, the computer models could be off on the timing of those Pacific disturbances, and they may end up not becoming involved.
However, the range of scenarios points to at least a little snow falling over some or all of South Carolina as early as late Friday. Some scenarios would lead to less moisture available, and some would result in the storm not really getting its act together until it’s moving away from us. Others show the storm intensifying by the time it gets here, bringing a major snowstorm that affects most of the state. The truth is likely somewhere in between.
You can expect different impacts with this storm compared to this past weekend’s storm, since it’s likely to bring snow rather than ice. Slick roads will be a problem, and it’s going to remain cold behind this storm, so the roads could remain slick for a while. However, the risk for power outages will be low. How hard it will become to get around and how long the roads remain bad will depend on how much snow falls. It’s too early to start throwing around numbers; maybe I can do that Wednesday, but more likely Thursday.
So, what do you do now? Another stampede to the bread and milk aisles of your favorite grocery store is the incorrect answer. Don’t you already have a surplus of those after the last storm wasn’t as bad as we expected? Start by checking out SCEMD’s SC Winter Weather Guide for tips and go from there. In the meantime, if you need milk or bread (or toilet paper, grits, whatever), go buy it, but don’t be a hoarder.
