By Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office
Key Points:
-A major winter storm for at least a part of South Carolina looks increasingly likely for this weekend, starting Saturday morning.
-The storm will be a long-duration event that lasts through the weekend and potentially into Monday.
-The highest risk of a high-impact winter storm is over the northern part of the state, but impacts could occur across the state.
-Precipitation types are in question and will remain in question for a couple of days as computer model solutions shift.
-The storm details remain uncertain for now, as we’re still about four days away from the storm starting.
-Most likely scenario, not heavily favored due to uncertainty:
-Snow at the onset in the Upstate on Saturday turns to sleet and eventually freezing rain Saturday night. A damaging ice buildup is possible, especially southeast of I-85.
-Across the CSRA, the Midlands, and northern Pee Dee, a bit of sleet and snow at the onset of the storm Saturday yields to freezing rain, with a damaging ice storm through Sunday night. There is the potential for a historic event comparable to the February 2014 winter storm.
-Areas further south see rain and freezing rain, with a chance of a damaging ice buildup along and near the Grand Strand and in northern parts of the Lowcountry.
Worst-case scenarios include:
-A heavy snow and sleet event over the Upstate and vicinity, with double-digit snow accumulations, and a damaging ice storm over much of the rest of South Carolina.
-A further northward track of the storm would shift the heavy snow out of South Carolina, while a damaging ice storm would occur over mainly the northern part of the state, though considerable sleet could limit ice buildup along and north of I-85. The Lowcountry would primarily see rain.
-A more southward track of the storm would bring heavy snow over more of South Carolina, with a damaging ice storm primarily affecting southern areas.
-It will remain cold following the storm, and melting will be slow should a significant accumulation of snow and sleet occur. A heavy snowfall followed by days of cold would make travel difficult for days (as happened after the early January 1988 winter storm).
Good afternoon. We have two more rounds of computer models that continue to show the risk for a major winter storm over most or all of the Palmetto State this weekend, so our confidence that we will see significant impacts has increased.
The forecast for now through Friday night remains unchanged:
A cold high-pressure system keeps our weather tranquil through Wednesday night.
The next cold front will move in on Thursday, bringing light rain to the Upstate.
Light rain is possible over much of the state Thursday night into Friday as this cold front slowly sinks southward.
Bitterly cold arctic air will filter into South Carolina behind this front starting Friday evening.
Our next storm, currently over the eastern Pacific Ocean, will reach us on Saturday. It looks likely that snow, ice and rain will spread over South Carolina starting in the morning in the Upstate, with most of the state impacted by mid-afternoon.
The computer models continue to show a range of possibilities, and the only thing they’re in good agreement on is that a large part of the South will see a major winter storm.
A more southward storm track would result in heavy snow over more of the state, and a more northward track would mean less snow and more ice in northern South Carolina. Meanwhile, the southern part of the state would see rain primarily, with some areas experiencing a lesser freezing rain and icing event. We see all these possibilities in the models today, though the range has narrowed over the last day.
It would be best to start your preparations soon. The potential exists for days of slippery travel in the north, with widespread power outages and a period of slick roads across much of the state. How do you deal with it? SCEMD’s SC Winter Weather Guide is a good starting point, and you can get more tips on winter storm preparedness at ready.gov. Pay close attention to the generator safety and indoor space heater safety tips; carbon monoxide is quite the villain.
The picture should become clearer about this weekend’s storm on Wednesday, as we enter the 72-hour window when the models become more trustworthy. See you then! I’ll leave you with the European ensemble model’s forecast snowfall for each member through Monday evening to give you an idea of the range of possibilities for snowfall totals. Keep in mind that in each case, we’ll have an area of sleet and freezing rain to the south of the snow area, which would affect South Carolina.
