By Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office
Key Points:
-Erin will pass between the East Coast and Bermuda during the upcoming workweek, far enough offshore that the hurricane’s wind and rain remain offshore of South Carolina.
However, large swells generated by Erin will pound our shoreline.
-High surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion, and overwash in some areas at high tide will affect all of South Carolina’s coast. The surf will be dangerous even for experienced surfers who understand the risk.
-The large swells will result in hazardous marine conditions all along our coast.
The dangerous surf and boating conditions will commence Monday night and will last through Thursday night and possibly Friday.
-Those traveling to North Carolina’s Outer Banks may see tropical storm conditions late Wednesday through Thursday morning, and the high surf will result in travel problems into and out of the area. Check ahead before travel.
The National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory on Erin shows no significant change in thinking since Friday.
The “Key Points” executive summary provides enough detail today, and I won’t rehash anything. Hurricane Erin is a Category 3 major hurricane after peaking at Category 5 during a remarkable rapid intensification Friday night into Saturday. Thankfully, it’s a near-miss for us because messing around with Erin would be like tugging on Superman’s cape, spitting into the wind, pulling the mask off that ol’ Lone Ranger, or messing around with South Alabama country boys. However, the coastal impacts will be serious.
Think of it as a warning shot, since we’re only starting the most active part of the hurricane season. Have your storm preps in place and visit hurricane.sc for advice on preparing or to find out your evacuation zone.
Other features of interest in the Atlantic:
-A swirl between the Outer Banks and Bermuda has little chance (10% according to NHC) to develop, and it’s moving away to the east.
-Another strong tropical wave is near Cabo Verde this afternoon. NHC is monitoring it for possible development next week. We’ll have to watch it carefully as it could become a threat to us in 7-10 days. It’s too early to say for sure; we’ll have a better idea if it’s a potential problem for us by Wednesday or Thursday.
Highlights of our weather this week:
-Hot and humid Monday with peak heat index mainly in the 98-104 range across the state. Few places, if any, see a cooling afternoon or evening thunderstorm.
-A weak cold front moves in Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to less heat and increasing afternoon thunderstorm chances.
Wednesday will be seasonably hot and humid with a sparse scattering of afternoon thunderstorms. Coastal areas, especially Horry and Georgetown Counties, will be breezy as Erin makes its closest approach.
-As Erin pulls away Thursday into Friday, a cold front will move in and become stationary over the Southeast. We’ll see widespread showers and thunderstorms those days. Stronger storms may cause locally damaging winds, and slow-moving storms both days could cause localized flooding. Thursday looks seasonably hot and muggy, but Friday likely features below-average temperatures.
-We likely remain unsettled and cooler than average next weekend with the stationary front still over the region.
