By Frank Strait
Severe Weather Liaison
S.C. State Climate Office
S.C. Department of Natural Resources
Our weather looks uneventful through the middle of next week, with some exceptions. Cold high pressure is covering the eastern half of the country today. This high-pressure area will drift away to the east this weekend, allowing for a warmup in the coming days.
The high will become anchored over the western Atlantic and deflect the next two storm systems to the north. However, both will brush the Upstate with some rain. We will remain rain-free across the state through Saturday, with highs in the low 50s in the Upstate to low 60s in the Lowcountry. However, northeast wind will increase on Saturday, with coastal areas seeing gusts over 30 mph in the afternoon into the night.
The first storm (now over the Rockies) will bring rain to the Upstate on Sunday. The clouds and rain will keep it chilly there, with highs only in the 40s, while the rest of the state remains dry and enjoys limited sunshine with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Onshore winds may carry a shower into our coastal areas Saturday night into Sunday, but no significant rain will fall. However, the wind will push water ashore, and a full moon is coming up on Sunday, so tidal flooding is likely at high tide along the Lowcountry coast on Sunday and early next week.
Monday and Tuesday will be warmer, with highs mainly in the 60s and 70s. Monday should be pleasant across the state. Tuesday looks mainly dry, but the next storm will pass well to our north that day, pulling a cold front into the state. That front may generate a few showers in the Upstate on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
The rest of next week looks unsettled, but we’re unsure how things will progress because the computer model forecasts diverge after Wednesday. I’m sure a few of you are model watchers and have seen the shenanigans. Some look warm and stormy later next week while others look chilly with gentler rain. One model run yesterday has even brought a snowstorm to parts of the state next weekend.
Snow looks unlikely; the weather pattern we’re in keeps me from ruling it out entirely but the pattern doesn’t look strongly favorable to me. However, I think we’re in for a substantial cold blast (think highs in the 30s and 40s) next weekend in the wake of the active stretch later next week. Cold and dry weather looks likely to me in the days leading up to Christmas, with temperatures slowly moderating Christmas Eve and Day. Don’t be surprised if a cold front moves in with a chance for rain on Christmas Day.
