Tropical Storm Sara formed on Thursday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea; it’s centered along the northern Honduran coast now. It formed from the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles a week ago, and it’s the only feature of interest over the Atlantic Basin today.
With about half of it over land, it’s unlikely to gain much strength as it drifts west through Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico this weekend. A turn more toward the northwest this weekend likely will bring it back over water Monday, over the Bay of Campeche.
What happens next with Sara will depend on how well it can maintain itself while passing over land. If it’s still a coherent tropical cyclone, then there is a chance for it to regain some strength early next week. However, the National Hurricane Center calls for it to dissipate by the time it reaches the Bay of Campeche.
Computer models tell us that Sara or its remains will follow a curving path early next week ahead of an approaching cold front that will bring it to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night. It will have to fight against hostile upper-level winds causing vertical wind shear on that track, and the northern Gulf of Mexico waters have cooled considerably now. So, it looks unlikely that Sara will still be a tropical cyclone by this point, even if it does survive to the Bay of Campeche.
There is a chance we’ll see some rain from Sara here in South Carolina around midweek, but that’s all. Right now, it looks like the chances for rain from Sara will be better along the coast than in the Upstate, with most of its moisture passing by to our south.
Once Sara is out of the way … that’s probably it for this season. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (here’s a primer on the MJO if you’re new here) will turn unfavorable for developments over the Atlantic Basin next week and remain unfavorable through the first part of December.
Of course, you should maintain your disaster readiness. Hurricanes aren’t the only hazard South Carolinians face. Winter storms aren’t unheard of, and the ground shakes every now and then. So, in addition to hurricane.sc, check out those other guides from SCEMD to help stay ready for any disaster that might hit us.
Chilly Air Inbound
It was nice Thursday to see us get a sensible amount of rain from a weather system for a change. It was not so great to walk a few blocks in the cold rain to grab lunch, but that’s what I signed up for when I left my lunch in the fridge at home. Anyway, the storm that brought us the rain (a solid 1-2 inches for parts of the Upstate, Midlands, and Pee Dee) is moving away today, and we’re in for a quiet stretch through the weekend and early next week. Highs will stay in the 60s statewide through Saturday, but then we see a gradual warming trend to the 70s early next week. Parts of the Lowcountry might reach 80 on Tuesday. It will get chilly each night, with lows mainly in the 40s through Monday night.
Once Sara passes by to our south or through around the middle of next week (in whatever form it’s in, likely just a plume of tropical moisture), a cold front will move through. The front likely passes through Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Behind the front, we’ll have a blustery period as polar air pushes into the Southeast. Then the end of next week and next weekend could be the coldest we’ve been so far this season. Those dying to see snowflakes will find them not far away in the higher ground of western North Carolina and East Tennessee late next week. You’ll want to check ahead if you want to go because those areas are still recovering from Helene.
